Tuesday, July 31, 2012

He's 41 years old, and he's never looked better

Age ain’t nothin’ but a number they say, and to prove it, Darren Oliver is currently pitching his way into the very specific parameter record books. Dating back to the beginning of time (or 1871, whichever came first) there have only been 22 pitchers who have done relief work in their age 41 season. There are actually 63 instances of players pitching in relief at 41 years old, but for the purposes of this post, I’ve filtered my search to Qualified Innings Pitched. I mean, Wade Boggs pitched 1.1 innings in 1999 for the Devil Rays (and posted a FIP of 1.63!!!). That hardly counts as a season’s worth of work.

With advances made in health and fitness, and redefined roles on the field, it’s not surprising that athletes can perform at a high level late into their careers. Shorter appearances and use in specific situations has lightened the workload for relievers significantly, allowing guys like Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera to work into (and past) the age of 41. To me, Darren Oliver has been that old guy that happens to land on a playoff roster, but compared to other pitchers at the age of 41, he is changing that line of thinking, and cementing himself at the top of a few leaderboards.

As of this writing, he is leading all qualified 41 year old relievers with an ERA of 1.40 and a K/9 rate of 9.09, and only second behind Mariano Rivera in FIP (2.58) and WHIP (0.91). He is currently allowing 2.09 walks and 0.47 home runs, which ranks seventh on the list.


Year
ERA

Year
FIP
Oliver
2012
1.40
Rivera
2011
2.19
Hoffman
2009
1.83
Oliver
2012
2.58
Fryman
1981
1.88
Wilhelm
1964
2.58
Rivera
2011
1.91
Hoffman
2009
2.63
Wilhelm
1964
1.99
Caldwell
1946
2.74
Caldwell
1946
2.08
Fryman
1981
2.79
Honeycutt
1995
2.96
Reed
1984
3.07
Reed
1984
3.08
Tekulve
1988
3.08
Kinder
1956
3.09
Kinder
1956
3.63
Hernandez
2006
3.11
McMahon
1971
3.76

Year
WHIP

Year
K/9
Rivera
2011
0.90
Oliver
2012
9.08
Oliver
2012
0.91
Rivera
2011
8.80
Hoffman
2009
0.91
Brocail
2008
8.39
Wilhelm
1964
0.94
Hoffman
2009
8.00
Caldwell
1946
0.98
Orosco
1998
7.94
Honeycutt
1995
1.07
McMahon
1971
7.79
Timlin
2007
1.08
Jones
1998
7.49
Reed
1984
1.11
Eckersley
1996
7.35
Eckersley
1996
1.18
Reed
1984
7.03
Fryman
1981
1.21
Hernandez
2006
6.79

Year
HR/9

Year
BB/9
Caldwell
1946
0.20
Eckersley
1996
0.90
Fryman
1981
0.21
Rivera
2011
1.17
Hoffman
2009
0.33
Reed
1984
1.73
Tekulve
1988
0.34
Jones
1998
1.79
Rivera
2011
0.44
Honeycutt
1995
1.97
Trucks
1958
0.44
Wilhelm
1964
2.06
Oliver
2012
0.47
Oliver
2012
2.09
Wilhelm
1964
0.48
Face
1969
2.28
Turner
1945
0.66
Timlin
2007
2.28
Hernandez
2006
0.71
Hoffman
2009
2.33

Even more impressive than the company he’s keeping on those leaderboards are the numbers he’s been putting up since being exclusively put to use in the bullpen in 2006.


Season
Team
Age
IP
ERA
FIP
WHIP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
WAR
2006
Mets
35
81.0
3.44
4.64
1.12
6.67
2.33
1.44
0.0
2007
Angels
36
64.1
3.78
3.78
1.26
7.13
3.22
0.70
0.7
2008
Angels
37
72.0
2.88
3.53
1.15
6.00
2.00
0.63
1.0
2009
Angels
38
73.0
2.71
3.32
1.14
8.01
2.71
0.62
1.5
2010
Rangers
39
61.2
2.48
2.64
1.10
9.49
2.19
0.58
1.6
2011
Rangers
40
51.0
2.29
2.77
1.14
7.76
1.94
0.53
1.3
2012
Blue Jays
41
38.2
1.40
2.58
0.91
9.08
2.09
0.47
0.9

With fewer innings pitched season by season, a declining ERA is to be expected, but what’s caught my eye are the rising WAR and declining FIP. His per-nine stats are improving as well – since 2006, his K/9 rate has gone up from 6.67 (2006 league average 7.29) to 9.08 (2012 league average 8.33), and his HR/9 rate is three times lower, from 1.44 to 0.47.

He is currently leading the Blue Jays’ revolving door bullpen in WAR, and is sitting second in FIP behind newbie Aaron Loup (2.15 FIP in 8.2 IP) which will change before long.

The Blue Jays have Oliver under contract for this season at $4 M, and they hold a $3 M team option for next season with a $500,000 buyout. Considering his current Fangraphs value is $4.1 M, and his numbers are trending in the right direction, he stands to be a tremendous value for the team next season, providing he doesn’t retire. Then again, disco records sales were up 400% for the year ending 1976. If these trends continue… a-y-y-y-y. Just three of the twenty-two qualifying relievers who pitched at 41 years old posted a lower FIP the following year. Only time will tell if he can be the fourth.


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