Saturday, August 20, 2011

Dreamin'...

When the Blue Jays have week-long west coast road trips, I fall asleep late in the game, usually around the 7th or 8th inning. This usually leads to baseball related dreams and panic at 3 in the morning, when I can't quite read the already-too-small box score on my too-small-for-late-night-score-reading 13" TV (I have entered, but obviously haven't won yet).

I noticed something on the latest road trip; when I fall asleep, nothing changes. I realize that my sleeping habits have no influence on the outcome of a game, much like an announcer commenting on a pitcher's no-hit bid is not going to start a rally by the opposing team, but one can dream, no? If my sleep cycle did affect the outcome, I could have turned in a lot earlier after the repeat performance of the Harden/Cecil show (in fact, I could have just said "I watched this game last Tuesday, didn't I?" and continued to watch Invader Zim on Nick). I should have gone to bed before the bullpen threw up all over the Jays' slim lead on Monday night, but no, I had to stay up to watch Jon Rauch give himself appendicitis. Once I did fall asleep, I tossed and turned all night with the words "small sample size" running through my head. Strange.

I also had two Blue Jay specific dreams this week, both of which will never come true. One was that the Jays would continue to win, while the Yankees and Red Sox split the rest of their games. That happened on Thursday night, just a day before the aforementioned Cecil v. Harden revisit. Thanks a lot A's.

The second dream was more about the division in which the Jays play - the AL East. I dreamt that instead of outright realignment, the Red Sox and Yankees would be forced to rotate divisions on an annual basis. That dream will never be realized, because as much as I hate those teams, they put butts in seats at the Skydome. It would be about as successful as putting the Detroit Red Wings in the Eastern Conference of the NHL. (That last sentence should be read: "It would be successful, but GMs from other teams will fight it tooth and nail because it would mean less money at their gate.")

So tonight is another late(ish) night game, the last one of the season, and I await the baseball sandman (Not Mariano Rivera - that would be creepy) to see what other wacky stuff I can come up with. That poses an interesting question. Does the baseball sandman use dirt from the warning track? If so, I think he needs to pay a visit to the Skydome to show the Jays' front office what it looks like.

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

The Farrell Formula

I wrote this post at around 8:30 this morning -- long before I found out about Jon Rauch's appendectomy. I feel bad for the guy, and this is more of a swipe at Farrell's managing style than Rauch's unfortunate pitching of late. I just wish I could have seen that appendix - it could probably feed a family of four.


In my last post, I was singing the praises of Jon Rauch and his dragon eating abilities. Things have changed. In the last ten games, the "closer" of our Toronto Blue Jays has posted an ERA of 6.75. For the month of August, his ERA is 7.50. He's given up 10 home runs on the season so far, only three off of his single-season record set in 2006. His WHIP was below 1 (0.9) in May, and it's steadily been creeping upwards ever since. His Fangraphs WAR is -0.6, the lowest in his career, yet John Farrell is still sending him out. Why? I call it the Farrell Formula.

Before I proceed, let me be clear: I am not a professional analyst, a fact that will become very clear over the life of this blog. I am just a fan who is concerned with the choices being made by the Manager of his favourite team.

It appears to me that no matter how the pitchers fared in 7th inning, more often than not, John Farrell will send out Frank Francisco in the 8th, and Jon Rauch in the 9th. It may be my selective memory, but it seems to me that in high leverage situations, Jon Rauch is in, and the game is in jeopardy. I hate the save stat - it just means your team is in too many close games - but when you have 11 saves in 16 opportunities, it means you've blown five of them. That's a blown save percentage of 31.25. These are not the numbers of a closer in my mind.

Are these the lingering effects of Farrell being a former pitching coach? They could be, and they may change over time, but Jesse Litsch has been lights-out as of late, and Casey Janssen hasn’t been bad himself. So what the eff, John? Why not give them a shot late in the game – you might be surprised.