Thursday, September 20, 2012

Troutman!

Los Angeles Angels center fielder Mike Trout catches a Baltimore Orioles batter J.J. Hardy (not pictured) home run in the first inning during their MLB American League baseball game in Baltimore, Maryland, June 27, 2012.
REUTERS/Patrick Smith
Jon Paul Morosi wrote an article that suggests there is no contest in the race for AL MVP, that the winner should be Miguel Cabrera, hands down. To me, the article had a defensive tone and came across as a preemptive strike against anyone who would consider he did not look closely at his miscues on defense or more in-depth stats.

It sparked a rather lively debate online between those who agree with Morosi and consider Cabrera's potential to win the elusive Triple Crown (league leader in AVG/RBI/HR) as enough to secure the MVP award, and those who back the young outfielder for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Angels of LA Anaheingels, Mike "The Millville Meteor" Trout. It looked to me that it quickly became an argument between The Old School (RBIs and batting average) vs. The New School (WAR and wOBA) with clear lines drawn in the sand.

Old School, you back Cabrera. New School, you're a Trout man. (Troutman! I like that.)

I consider myself a Troutman.

Dustin Parkes at Getting Blanked took Morosi to task to a degree, and Dave Cameron at Fangraphs made an airtight case for Trout for MVP. Everything's there in both pieces, I don't need to reiterate their statements. I definitely suggest you take a moment and read all three articles to see what I mean.

Now, no one is suggesting that a vote for Cabrera is a vote wasted. If he does in fact win the Triple Crown, that would be a fantastic accomplishment that no one can take away from him. I understand that members of the BBWAA are going to vote based on that, and that alone. I just don't think that the metrics involved, batting average, RBIs and home runs are enough to determine a player's true value. Unless Cabrera put those runners on base himself, RBIs aren't a good measure.

Take a look at these numbers:

wOBA
wRC+
fWAR
R
TB
DRS
Cabrera
.420
169
6.6
100
347
-5
Trout
.420
174
9.4
118
283
25

With the exception of total bases, Mike Trout is the clear winner. Had Trout been with the Angels from the beginning of the season, the gap in total bases would be considerably smaller, and in the other categories, the divide would probably be wider. I know this could be construed as cherry-picking stats, but the same can be said for the Triple Crown, no?

In his piece, Morosi suggests that Cabrera has two weeks to hit two home runs and lock up the Triple Crown. To me, that reads as if no one else in the league is going to hit another home run for the rest of the season. Miggy's the only one allowed to do it because gosh darn it, he's the MVP. Such a world does not exist.

I think what I'm getting at is the MVP award, along with the rest of the awards handed out at the end of the year seem at best, awash in narrative and at worst, devoid of analysis and a royal screw job for the truly deserving. OK, that's a little harsh, but I think you see what I mean. These awards have to be taken with a grain of salt. The Gold Glove, a defensive award, is sometimes handed out based on reputation or offensive output, not actual defense *ahemderekjeterahem*.

Another reason why I feel strongly about this debate in particular might lie in the fact that I'm learning more about advanced statistics and I'm starting to see where real value is found on the playing field.

Or maybe I'm a horrible person and I still hold Cabrera's off the field indiscretions against him.

Maybe the real reason I'm a Troutman is the fact that I sat at my aunt's kitchen table this past June - in Mike Trout's home state of New Jersey, no less - and declared that he would win both Rookie of the Year and AL MVP, and I don't want to look like a liar.

Ah well. Troutman!

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Reaction to a reaction

Yunel Escobar's eye-black incident has been investigated and a punishment has been handed down. He will serve a three game suspension and the money he would have earned over that time is being donated to GLAAD and You Can Play. According to the press release issued by the Blue Jays;
Yunel will participate in an outreach initiative to help educate society about sensitivity and tolerance to others based on their sexual orientation.  His participation will be conducted in consultation with all parties involved. Escobar will also participate in a sensitivity training program in accordance with the Toronto Blue Jays and Major League Baseball.
-- Blue Jays Press Release 09/18/2012 
The suspension was to be expected, and Yunel's participation in an an outreach program is promising. What left me cold was the press conference to discuss the outcome of the investigation, and the comments from teammates afterwards. From glib stereotyping by Yunel Escobar, to contradictory statements by Alex Anthopoulos (homophobia's a problem) and John Farrell (not in our clubhouse), and  apologists who still insist that "it doesn't mean the same thing in Latin circles", it feels like the message hasn't sunk in.

The only voice in the clubhouse I'm inclined to believe is that of Carlos Villanueva. Chris Toman, Blue Jays beat writer who wrote an excellent piece on Villanueva and the importance of education, tweeted the following:



I still feel that the clubhouse it partly responsible for the incident, and that it's not enough for Yunel Escobar to be the only part of the organization to take part in any sort of outreach program. The rest of the team should, at the very least, go through a sensitivity training program, especially after some still believe that since the term doesn't mean the same in Spanish speaking circles it's not that big a deal. If the Blue Jays were to announce an awareness or fundraising partnership with either You Can Play or GLAAD, that would be a step in the right direction.

If today's press conference is the last we hear of the organization's efforts to move themselves towards being a more tolerant environment in the realm professional sports, and Yunel doesn't learn anything from this, then Villanueva is right. It won't matter, and this will go down as one of the darkest times in Blue Jays history.

Yunel Escobar did something stupid

I can't imagine that I can bring any news to this issue, as it's been covered very well. From the beginning - by @james_in_to who broke the story via his flickr feed, to the official Blue Jays website, where it has been confirmed that Alex Anthopoulos will hold a press conference with Escobar, John Farrell and coach Luis Rivera in attendance. There are plenty of reaction pieces out there, including the blog post that took most of the words out of my mouth by The Tao of Stieb. This is my reaction.

Yunel Escobar did something really stupid.

There is chatter on Twitter as to whether or not we the fans, and to a certain extent, the media,  understand what context Yunel's eye-black was meant to be taken in. It's not as though it was a vague statement. It did not read "2.9% APR Financing" or "Raspberry Jelly on Toast", to which we would blurt out a collective "buh?". It read "Tu ere maricon", and roughly translated from Spanish, that reads "You are a faggot". That does not need a heaping helping of context, if you ask me.

Further to the context argument, there are some saying that the word "maricon" can mean "pussy" or "pansy", as if that downgrades the severity of the term. Other comments say that gay men in Spanish speaking countries call each other that all the time, so it's no big deal. To me, hate is hate, and it is not right. Whether it's Mike Milbury decrying the "pansification" of fighting in the NHL three years ago, or an elected official requesting a team silence a player because he supports same-sex marriage, there is no place for intolerance, degradation or ignorance in sport.

Even if the original Spanish phrase carries a different connotation than the English translation, one can not be shocked at the outrage this has sparked. Wouldn't someone in the organization who speaks both languages conclude that the English speaking media and fan base would not 'get the joke' and stop it in its tracks?

That is the biggest issue I have with this incident. The fact that no one stopped Yunel from taking the field. It's been widely regarded that professional athletes are not the most sensitive people on the face of the earth (Remember John Rocker?), so it's no shock that someone wrote something so ignorant on the eye-black, whether it was Yunel himself, or a teammate or staff member. What I don't understand, and I hope it is clarified to some extent in the upcoming press conference, is how they - the players, managers, coaches, staff - could see the offending phrase on his face, and let him go on to the field in front of thousands of fans and plenty of cameras, James' included.

The optimist in me wishes that it was seen by the staff, documented, and they let him take the field in the hopes that the umps would see it and wring him up, leading to his "flu-like symptoms" on Sunday afternoon.

The pessimist in me sees a clubhouse full of jocks joking around with each other, daring him to take the field with a slur on his cheeks, because, you know, that's what it's like in a clubhouse, bro.

Major League Baseball is investigating (as reported by Jerry Crasnick), and hopefully this is not dismissed as a 'boys will be boys' case. MLB has a history of letting more egregious things slide (see Young, Delmon and Cabrera, Miguel), and while an outright suspension will be drastic, I don't think it is the right course of action. The team - not just Yunel - needs to partake in some sort of an education program, and these insensitive comments and actions need to be worked out of the clubhouse.

And there you have it, my admittedly disjointed take on Yunel Escobar and the very stupid thing he did. I'll probably post a follow up after the press conference.

Friday, September 14, 2012

You only live once... every 15 years

On April 10th 2012, the Blue Jays were hosting the Boston Red Sox for game 2 of their home opening series at the Rogers Centre. Play was interrupted when a young fan burst on to the field wearing nothing but a Speedo and a pair of Chuck Taylors, with the acronym YOLO (You Only Live Once) scrawled across his chest. No one was sure how he arrived on the field, until now.
Photoshop is really fun
The Baltimore Orioles have harnessed the powers of time travel and sent a representative back to warn the rest of the division that this is their year. They are the YOLOrioles.

Drake was there to help get them over the border or protect his brand or something.

Seriously though, after a 14-inning 5 plus hour affair with the Rays, the Orioles secured at the very least, a .500 season. Their next win guarantees a winning season, their first in 15 years. Back then in 1997, they went all the way to the ALCS, only to lose to the Cleveland Indians in 6 games. Not bad.

(I'm going to run this damned thing into the ground, I am.)

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Outcomes: First Batter Faced

(Brian Kersey/Getty Images)
I've often wondered what hurts more to a pitcher, giving up a home run to lead off an inning or giving up a walk and then seeing that batter come around to score. Thoughts on the matter really started to bubble as this Blue Jays season trundled along, and Ricky Romero piled up the walks. To me, it felt like he was issuing free passes early in innings, leading to trouble.

To determine if my eyes were deceiving me, or worse, I was falling prey to the chatter of the Jays' commentators, I looked through Romero's game logs going back to 2009 and pulled the outcome of the first at bat of every inning in which he pitched. The results amounted to a pretty unwieldy workbook which I have pared down to the following:

2009
2010
2011
2012
1st Batters Faced
185
215
232
166
Reached Base
84
70
79
66
BB
29
22
21
24
Ball in Play
48
42
41
32
HR
3
4
12
6
HBP
4
2
5
4
Out
101
145
153
100
Strikeout
28
35
47
17
In play, Out
73
110
106
83
1st Batter OBP
0.454
0.326
0.341
0.398
LOB%
75.5%
70.2%
79.2%
64.6%
FIP
4.33
3.64
4.20
5.09
WAR
2.8
4.1
2.9
0.5

To put those results in context, I pulled the same data for David Price, as he was suggested by both Baseball Reference and Brooks Baseball as the closest comparable pitcher for Romero. Here is his 1st batter table:

2009
2010
2011
2012
1st Batters Faced
134
214
230
179
Reached Base
48
67
67
51
BB
15
21
11
8
Ball in Play
29
40
47
36
HR
4
5
7
5
HBP
0
1
2
2
Out
86
147
163
128
Strikeout
18
42
53
31
In play, Out
68
105
110
97
1st Batter OBP
0.358
0.313
0.291
0.285
LOB%
68.5%
78.5%
73.3%
82.2%
FIP
4.59
3.83
3.32
3.21
WAR
1.3
4.1
4.7
4.1

As expected, Romero's 2009 numbers aren't spectacular, but it was his rookie season. What is troubling -- glaring, actually -- are the K/BB rate and OBP for first batters faced, and the LOB% for the current season. Price's numbers are trending towards excellent, as a young pitcher's numbers should as they progress through their career, but when it comes to Romero, it seems as though the bottom just fell out.

Gettin' on
Out of the 166 batters Romero has faced to lead off an inning so far this season, almost 40% of them have reached base. Out of that group, just over half did so by way of an outcome under the pitchers' control: BB, HR & HBP. David Price on the other hand, has only allowed 29% of the first batters he has faced on base, and only 29% of those batters (15 out of 51) reached by way of walk, home run or HBP.

Strollin' along
It has been well documented that Ricky Romero's K/BB is a league worst 1.22 this season, but that drops to an abysmal 0.71 with no outs and no one on. Compare that to the 2.23 for the season and 2.24 against first batters that he posted in 2011, and well, you just shake your dang head. Again, if you look at David Price, he has a sparkling K/BB of 3.88 against the first batter in an inning, and 3.24 for the season.

Bringin' them around
Roll that up with a left on base percentage that is second worst in the league at 64.6% and you have to wonder if early inning control issues have lead to the mess he is mired in. So far this season, David Price has a LOB% of 82.2, so when batters do manage to get on base, very few of them come around to score.

It's easy to say "Don't let them on early and you won't worry about them coming around", but we all know pitching is not easy - it is by far one of the most difficult tasks in all of sports, and I have the utmost respect for Ricky Romero for what he does. It's just so strange, so intriguing and flat-out frustrating to see the numbers fall off a cliff for no apparent reason, and to dive in to try and figure out what's going on is part of what makes baseball so interesting.

Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Time to extract the LOL from Orioles

At some point last night, after the rain came down inside the SkyDome, and the Orioles put the screws to the Triple-A Blue Jays, Matthew Kory from Baseball Prospectus and Over the Monster tweeted the following:


T-Shirts available here
It reminded me of a very appropriate graphic from a Getting Blanked post early in the year, when the OriLOLes were lulzing it up by getting kicked out of South Korea and firing their entire scouting staff. The graphic, created by Matt English, was perfect for the laugh-a-minute Marylanders.

That was before the season started.

Going into tonight`s game, the Baltimore Orioles were tied for first in the AL East. Sure, they gave up three runs on an error by Adam Jones tonight, and fell one game behind the Yankees. Yeah, their run differential is -21, they carry a below average wRC+ (93), and their team has committed the most errors in the American League. Good lord, though, they are 16 games above .500, they are winning close games, and they stand to make the playoffs for the first time since 1997 - 15 years ago. So I think Matthew Kory is right.

It`s time to extract the LOL from the Orioles:

Photoshop is fun
...and then next season, when they fall back to earth, we can go right back to making fun of them. I promise, we`ll jam the LOL right back in there and everything will be back to normal.