It's early in the season yet, and the Jays are still in fourth place in the division, but a healthy and positive run differential is a very encouraging sign. They are scoring a decent number of runs in a variety of different innings, the most (37) coming in the third, which is also the inning in which they score most frequently (15 times). What is discouraging to me are the runs being scored against the Jays in two particular innings on a seemingly regular basis. In the 38 games played so far, the opposition has scored 41 runs in the fifth inning and 30 in the ninth. In those 38 games, 17 of them had at least one run cross the plate in the fifth and 14 had at least one in the ninth.
See the nifty table below.
Blue Jays
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
X
|
Totals
|
Runs
|
10
|
6
|
37
|
26
|
10
|
32
|
14
|
24
|
9
|
7
|
175
|
Instances
|
9
|
5
|
15
|
14
|
6
|
15
|
9
|
12
|
7
|
2
|
94
|
Opposition
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
X
|
Totals
|
Runs
|
10
|
21
|
5
|
11
|
41
|
12
|
10
|
8
|
30
|
5
|
153
|
Instances
|
8
|
12
|
5
|
9
|
17
|
9
|
6
|
5
|
14
|
2
|
87
|
Note: Runs are runs, instances are innings where at least one run is scored, and the X represents extra innings.
Yes, Sergio Santos struggled before his injury, and the fun times that were had with KoKo B. Ware should sufficiently explain the ninth inning issues, but the concern is not with the bullpen, it is with the starting rotation. The starters have pitched through the fifth inning in all but one game - when Kyle Drabek was pulled after getting one out in the fifth - he was responsible for three of the four runs posted in that inning.
As I said before, it is still very early in the season, and this could be a glaring example of trying to glean answers from a small sample size, but what could cause a scoring spike in the same inning on a somewhat regular basis? Could it be that the starters are wearing down by the fifth and giving up too many good pitches or walking too many batters? Maybe by that point in the game, the opposition has had a good look at their pitch selection and delivery and they are taking advantage of familiar patterns. If that's all true, then why have the Jays only scored 10 runs compared to the opposition's 41?
If I were a real statsasabrmetrigician I might know the answers, but I am just a fan who happened to notice that his favorite team has been giving up runs in roughly the same spot in about half of the games they've played so far. One of these days I'll look up more than box scores to try and sort it out. Until then, I'll try and forget about the 41 runs in the fifth, and enjoy the +22 run differential.
As I said before, it is still very early in the season, and this could be a glaring example of trying to glean answers from a small sample size, but what could cause a scoring spike in the same inning on a somewhat regular basis? Could it be that the starters are wearing down by the fifth and giving up too many good pitches or walking too many batters? Maybe by that point in the game, the opposition has had a good look at their pitch selection and delivery and they are taking advantage of familiar patterns. If that's all true, then why have the Jays only scored 10 runs compared to the opposition's 41?
If I were a real statsasabrmetrigician I might know the answers, but I am just a fan who happened to notice that his favorite team has been giving up runs in roughly the same spot in about half of the games they've played so far. One of these days I'll look up more than box scores to try and sort it out. Until then, I'll try and forget about the 41 runs in the fifth, and enjoy the +22 run differential.
